And I'm not just talking about the latest poll. While Monday's poll does bolster my arguments it doesn't change anything. Even if National and Labour's fortunes were reversed, the right still wouldn't have a path to victory. Allow me to explain.
Before the by-election, I posited a few possible outcomes and what those would mean, but it turns out that nothing particularly shocking happened. In the end, Labour increase their vote, but National didn't lose any support.