Ever since I accepted the invitation to join New Conservative, I've been thinking.
With 2.5% in this week's TaxpayersUnion-Curia poll and a Horizon-Research poll last year, we've seen some of the most positive polling since 2015. If we can hold and grow these numbers we're halfway to Parliament.
The right has a problem in NZ that is hard to fix because it requires a fundamental change in mindset.
The focus is all wrong. We don't lack firearms or free speech, nor do we lack any democratic rights or freedoms. We have armouries full of guns and an overabundance of free speaking. What we lack is power.
Rather than things getting harder for us electorally, they will get easier every election. As the parliamentary parties, media, and overton window all move left, the potential vote share for a normal party saying normal things that normal people know to be true will only grow. Conservatives have no representation in parliament and no power. It's only a matter of reaching them. This isn't an easy thing to do, as the past has shown, but it becomes ever more possible with every passing election. It'll all come down to the execution. You don't need a majority to have power in NZ, what you need is a highly-motivated, disaffected minority.
Part of the problem is a fixation on the majority, a remnant from our first-past-the-post (FPP) electoral system and the moral majority that the boomers grew up with. These are things that the right has struggled to acknowledge and adapt to: acknowledging that you are a minority and seek minority representation.
Another problem is getting people to think about conservatism outside of the framework of liberal values. It's hard, NZ is built on liberalism and egalitarianism, but we need to be willing to think outside the box. Localism needs to be embraced as the answer to over a century of centralisation that still continues at pace.
These are core problems I've been working on fixing for NC in the past few years, including putting forward a modern image and appearance. There's less talk about democracy and freedom, more talk about relevant social issues and the need to get the country back on a sane track. This has allowed us to focus on opposing medical coercion without being dragged down the rabbit hole, and talk about freedom in the context of a well-ordered society. We can oppose the transgender agenda like no one else can.
You can't talk about too many niche issues. You can't promise to screw conservative voters over with binding referenda. You can't afford to scare away suburban mothers and religious immigrants. You can't afford to attract overwhelming fire from left-wing media activists because you've gone after one too many of their sacred cows. Focus, discipline, patience, and even subterfuge is required. Social issues are getting more and more bizarre and therefore easier to oppose while maintaining the scope of a broad audience. Things are so laughably bad now that not a single National MP will take off their muzzle to comment on a social issue—not even the sexualisation of children by the trans cult.
The pitch is simple. You have no representation in parliament right now. You have no power, but we hear you and we can be your voice. The messaging has to stay focused and concrete. It needs to balance social issues and family economics. It needs to be different enough, it needs to be able to go where National/ACT can't. It needs to be more sensible, plausible, and conservative than both fresh upstarts and old competition in the minor party space can be.
This year we're faced with Hipkins or Luxon in the Beehive. I couldn't care less who wins.
The only question is: am I going to win? Are you going to win? Are we going to win?