A little bit of a bizarre situation has formed in the wake of New Zealand's COVID lockdowns and forced vaccination policies. The opposition to these things was chaotic and disorganised. There were protests, an occupation of parliament grounds, and people sacrificed a lot for it, both Brian Tamaki and Leighton Baker spent time in the slammer for their convictions. Charges against Baker, who was jailed overnight during the parliament protest, have been dropped while those against Tamaki, who spent nine nights in jail for protests in Auckland, are ongoing.
Many other less risky anti-mandate actions took place between 2020-2023. Court cases were undertaken by churches, the police, the army, and nurses with various levels of success. There was a healthy level of quiet civil disobedience that never made much of a public splash. The government cracked down on those who did so openly to maintain order and enforce their will.
However the obvious question arose among the most open and vocal of the anti-government elements: what now? How do we stop this from happening again? The answer is, of course, to build political power.
When there is close to 95% compliance and satisfaction with something the government does, how do you transform that into a reasonable political movement? There are three existing parties who have made overtures to the disaffected: Act, NZ First, and New Conservative. That covers your liberal, nationalist, and social conservative bases and some natural homes for people who are very liberal, people who are very grumpy, and people who are not very liberal.
There are currently no real indications that any new party will enter parliament at this election. It's possible that political veteran Winston Peters will get close and maybe even lucky based on polling, but barring any miraculous events, the minor parties that have stayed since the 2020 elections are looking to build their bases bigger during the upcoming 12 week campaign season. There's always 2026 on the horizon and it's not like the issues that NC, TOP, or NZFirst care about are going to get fixed any time soon.
However, the chaos of parliament protests has transformed itself to the chaos of politics. Three new factions have arisen to compete over the same group of voters, each of these a presidential movement rather than an ideological one. Matt King, Brian Tamaki, and Leighton Baker. You have to like the man to consider supporting the party. Without these figures each faction would vanish overnight.
The question then becomes, can they split a target audience of under 5% enough ways for anyone to come out on top? This is a ludicrous proposal, and they all know it too. No minor party will win an electorate either, and everyone knows that too.
This means that none will be in parliament come October. I'd offer bets on it if there were anyone silly enough to take them.
The question then becomes… why? To that I do not have an answer beyond the assumption that each faction has allowed itself to believe its own propaganda. That is the most destructive element of politics I have witnessed in my few years of politics so far.
What if they all worked together? This is not an uncommon question, but it is a naive one. It's simply not possible to throw everyone into a clown car and drive it to parliament. The competing visions, the cracks under pressure, the media looking for a spectacle, and the fact that almost every voter wants their team to "act normal" would all be enough to doom such an endeavour to failure. The electoral system is designed to be resilient against clowns and jokers who would threaten its foundations.
Will voters ever give power to anyone who associates themselves with Brian Tamaki or Sue Grey? Why would a liberal who is willing to hold their nose for some modicum of power choose Matt King over David Seymour or Winston Peters? Voting for someone who names a political party after themselves? It doesn't matter how nice or well-meaning you are, there is a level of cringe only a fanatic can overcome.
The question I ask when I look at every party is: why does this party exist? Will it be around in three years after it experiences inevitable loss? Does this party have the possibility of being taken seriously?
If the answer to any of these questions is an unknown or a no, it becomes a joke party.
The core messages you hear from all three factions are that two broken things need fixing: democracy and freedom.
There is little evidence that any are prepared to grapple with the fact that, just maybe, democracy and freedom are subjective expressions of a society's more foundational values. Just maybe, these things are functioning as the majority wants them to.
In closing, I have a pitch for the social conservatives reading this. We are a minority in this country, but we have a political system that's designed to give power to minorities. We can effect changes that reward our values and traditions. There are no grand promises from me, only that of hard work and a long road ahead. It's possible for us to support the few remaining conservative MPs who hold electorates (or even to support candidates for new ones) while at the same time putting our party votes to good use. We can secure the party votes of one-in-five social conservatives needed to get to 5%. Our target audience encompasses a third of voters. This is a very realistic goal, even though it won't be easy.
There's nothing special about any election, there's no "all or nothing" effort required. There's no magic set of policies or saviour waiting around the corner to give your voice representation. Join New Conservative and support us in whatever way you can. Commit to this with me for as long as many electoral cycles as it takes. Most of the voters you need to attract are non-political and they don't follow current events in great detail, but they know there is an evil ideology afoot. All they want is a group of people who will help stop it. They will respond positively to a serious and achievable vision for the future. When the opportunity for victory presents itself, we must be ready.