Birth rates have dropped to an all-time low, as has the percentage of European New Zealanders, and the population is ageing. That's the summary of headlines around fertility data and demographic change in New Zealand. The fertility rate is now 1.5 children per woman, down from 1.6 last year.
These statistics are presented like they have simply happened as the product of natural changes. In reality, demographics are the result of active political decisions.
There is now much institutional bias against Europeans that results in more people self-identifying as Maori without a significant ethnic or cultural stake. This means that the politics of the Maori Party are not likely to ever capture a majority of Maori. Hence the vicious attacks on those who are not deemed to be "true Maori." The extent that this ethno-centrism is now embedded in the psyche of the Maori elite was outlined recently by Haimona Gray from his own experience as a "White Maori." Unfortunately for him I would say that with history as a guide, "you ain't seen nothing yet."
What does the future look like for the country? The Maori Party was lampooned by Winston Peters as the "party of radicals", and not representative of Maori. The point missed really is that 3% of the population is enough dedicated support to sustain a revolutionary cause indefinitely. The Maori demographics that underpin the support of the Maori Party's ethno-nationalism are shifting rapidly away from the politics of Winston Peters and David Seymour. Every election from here is guaranteed to be a "race election" between the politics of colour-blindness and race-consciousness.
However, due to mass migration Maori will soon see another displacement as Asians overtake them as the second largest ethnic group in the country. It's a bit of a mistake to group "Asian" interests together, but the three largest subgroups here are Chinese, Indian, and Filipino. While they have no direct common political cause, it seems inevitable that their primary collective concern will be to remain first-class citizens.
It's a bit easier to convince an Anglo-Celt to care about a treaty between his ancestral monarchy and Maori chiefs, than to convince a man who just got off a plane from Manilla, New Delhi, or Beijing he should suffer for the supposed sins of strangers long dead and buried. There's a lot of propaganda aimed at making them care, but people always revert to base instincts when there are significant consequences on the line.
The number of Maori in New Zealand is growing, as they seem to have understood that demography is destiny. Theoretically at some stage in the future a third of the country will identify as Maori, the highest since the early days of British settlement and colonisation.
The problem radical Maori have identified is a real one: being a minority in your own country means you don't have democratic control to determine its destiny. It's almost certain that increasing numbers of White New Zealanders will have their own racial awakening as they face becoming a minority in the next two decades while an even greater number of Maori radicals threaten utu.
Democracy is only real if you have an honest belief you can win. Once it's clear you can never win a majority, then the political calculation made by any group of people will change.
As the bureaucrats who compiled the statistics and the journalists who reported on it, "New Zealand is more diverse than ever."
With that ethnic diversity inevitably comes the politics of diversity, where every election is an ethnic headcount.