Every election cycle, political parties scramble to position themselves as the next governing force, fervently insisting that victory is within reach. But do they truly have a chance every time? Upon closer examination, as explored in this article, it becomes clear that Aotearoa’s political landscape is more predictable than many might assume. Patterns of voter behaviour, historical trends, and the inherent dynamics of coalition politics often limit the real possibilities for change, making Aotearoa's elections more structured and foreseeable than the rhetoric suggests. In this article, I will analyse current trends to forecast key developments in the 2026 election. The primary areas of focus will include:
- the potential decline of coalition partners,
- the composition and dynamics of the left bloc, and
- the likelihood of the National Party’s re-election.
Before making any predictions, it is crucial to clarify that these forecasts are based on observable trends, which can shift with any given election. While elections are not strictly governed by trends, trends are inherently tied to electoral outcomes. Although I have some confidence in my predictions due to the persistence of these trends, whether historical or unbroken, there remains a possibility for error. This analysis is rooted in the current National/Labour paradigm. Consequently, I will also critique my own predictions, providing readers with an examination of their potential weaknesses.
Additionally, it is essential to acknowledge my biases before making any predictions, as they could significantly influence my analysis. Throughout this process, I have strived to remain objective, understanding that a lack of self-awareness could introduce substantial errors. My inclination is towards the conservative bloc, specifically National and New Zealand First.
For transparency, I must disclose that I am a member of the National Party. This necessitates a careful approach to data analysis to avoid any intentional bias that might favour the National Party. One reason for this disclosure is to hold myself accountable to the data. Predicting a National landslide without basis would not serve my party; rather, it would be a disservice. Providing an accurate, albeit potentially pessimistic, assessment of the National Party’s position could encourage better messaging and greater effort, rather than fostering complacency with an illusion of assured victory. Furthermore, I will refrain from predicting exact percentages for party support, as such forecasts are impractical, especially this far from the election. Instead, my analysis will focus on broader trends and general realities.
1. The Coalition Partners
With the foundations laid for interpreting the data, let’s begin by examining the right bloc of the political aisle, specifically the coalition partners. Historical data indicates that coalition partners tend to perform worse in subsequent elections. Some experience a complete collapse, falling well below the five percent threshold, while others see a significant decline. Therefore, I predict with a degree of certainty that both the ACT New Zealand and New Zealand First parties will face challenges.
I anticipate New Zealand First will fall below the five percent threshold, as they barely surpassed it in the 2023 election, reaching six percent. Historically, in the two governments where New Zealand First had coalition agreements, they experienced drastic declines in the subsequent elections, falling below the threshold. This pattern also poses a problem for ACT. The data on ACT is limited, as their political power has primarily come from the Epsom seat rather than the party vote, which has usually been below the five percent threshold. Consequently, it is unclear whether ACT will experience a significant or gradual decline. However, it is likely that there will be some decline, as no coalition party has survived their first term in government without a major fall.
A key weakness in this inference is that, under our Mixed-Member Proportional (MMP) system, we previously had multiple strong options. When coalition parties failed to deliver on their platforms, their voters were not inextricably linked to them. However, this dynamic may be changing. Each party in Parliament now occupies a defined place in the Aotearoa political context: Labour as the party of unions and inclusivity, Greens as eco-friendly socialists, Māori Party for Māori sovereignty, ACT as the sole libertarian party, New Zealand First as the conservative party, and National as the big-tent, centre-right party.
Previously, parties like the Conservative/New Conservative Party could erode New Zealand First’s support if they disappointed their voters. However, New Zealand First now seems to be the definitive conservative expression in Aotearoa politics. Conservatives are beginning to realise that political fragmentation has empowered liberals in Parliament. Therefore, it is possible that we may see a more mature and stable Parliament. Despite this, I currently maintain my prediction that there will be a collapse of these coalition parties, although there are reasons to believe they might persist for a while.
2. The Left Bloc
The Green Party's recent trajectory within Aotearoa’s political landscape suggests a notable shift in the dynamics of the Left bloc. The Green Party experienced a modest rise, achieving eight percent in the 2020 election despite being somewhat sidelined in 2017 due to Winston Peters and New Zealand First's pivotal role. Labour’s dominant 2020 victory, which negated the need for a coalition, still saw the Green Party securing a confidence and supply deal, contributing to their further rise to eleven percent in 2023. Current polling consistently places them between twelve and fourteen percent, with a Roy Morgan poll even showing them just ten points behind Labour.
This growth is particularly striking given the internal scandals that have plagued the party. If these issues are managed effectively, the Green Party is likely to continue its upward trajectory. Over the long term, it is conceivable that the Green Party could emerge as the major left-leaning party within a generation, experiencing fluctuations but ultimately maintaining or expanding its base. This gradual rise parallels the slow-burning ascent of Harry Holland’s Labour Party, suggesting that with the right leadership, the Green Party could eventually produce a Prime Minister.
Conversely, Labour's future appears less certain. Without a charismatic leader akin to Jacinda Ardern, Labour may struggle to significantly challenge the National Party in the 2026 election. However, introducing a dynamic, youthful figure like Arena Williams could potentially reinvigorate Labour, posing a challenge to the Green Party’s dominance and potentially pushing Green support back to single digits.
A critical point to consider is that the Green Party’s recent success challenges its historical trend of losing support when the left is in opposition, typically as voters return to Labour. While they managed to sustain eleven percent in 2011 and ten percent in 2014, they fell to six percent in 2017. This history suggests that my prediction of a modest rise in 2026 may hold true, even as the Green Party undergoes periods of ebb and flow. Drawing a parallel with Labour’s early 20th-century development, it is plausible that by 2035, the Green Party will have refined its appeal sufficiently to secure a strong position.
3. National's Prospects
The National Party's prospects for the 2026 election appear strong, grounded in both historical precedent and the dynamics of Aotearoa’s political system. Historically, Aotearoa has never witnessed a National Party government being ousted after just one term, nor has there been a National-led government that failed to secure at least two consecutive terms in office. This trend is not unique to National; the only one-term government in the modern political era was led by Walter Nash in the 1950s. This rarity underscores the inherent electoral stability that incumbent governments often enjoy in Aotearoa, particularly when the party in power has demonstrated competence in governance and effectively managed the nation's pressing issues.
In addition to this historical stability, there is a broader pattern where parties tend to experience a rise in voter support during their second term in office. This was evident in the 2002, 2011, and 2020 elections, where the governing parties saw their vote shares increase compared to their initial term. The 2002 and 2011 elections, in particular, saw moderate gains for the incumbents, which reinforced their position in power. The 2020 election, while marked by an extraordinary surge in support for Labour due to the unique circumstances surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic, can be considered an outlier. The crisis-driven nature of that election resulted in an unusual consolidation of votes around the Labour Party, a phenomenon unlikely to repeat under normal conditions.
In conclusion, I anticipate that the National Party will emerge from the 2026 election in a stronger position, benefiting from a weakened coalition, and a gradually fragmenting left bloc. While the full implications of this split for National may not become clear until the 2029 election, the current trajectory suggests that National is well-placed to capitalise on these dynamics and enjoy a successful tenure in government, at least for the next cycle.
One of the key criticisms of National revolves around the perceived influence of its coalition partners, with concerns that National may be conceding too much to them. However, this criticism could ironically work in National's favour, as it may motivate some voters to rally behind the party in order to give it a stronger, more independent mandate. By consolidating its base and attracting centrist voters who are wary of a fragmented left, National could strengthen its foothold in government.
While predicting electoral outcomes is inherently uncertain due to the many variables at play, some trends can be reasonably forecasted. It is likely that New Zealand First will struggle to maintain its presence in Parliament by 2026, while the ACT Party may see a decline in influence. Conversely, the National Party is likely to solidify its strength. On the left, the Green Party could see a continued, albeit modest, increase in popularity, while Labour may stabilise. This stabilisation could set the stage for a more competitive political landscape in the future, but for now, the advantage seems to lie with National.