29/05/2018
Dieuwe de Boer
Opinion
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Latest Poll: Bad News for Simon and Winston, Good News for Judith and Jacinda

The latest poll provides some interesting insights into just what is going on in the political arena. While polls at this stage don't translate into actual results, they do show us just what is working and what isn't. First up, it confirms a prediction that I made shortly after Simon Bridges became the National Party leader: in his question to appease the unappeasable, he would appease precisely no one.

A Newshub-Reid Research poll has brought some seriously bad news for Simon Bridges.

Mr Bridges, who has now been in the role three months to the day, has earned just 9 percent of the vote in the preferred Prime Minister stakes – the lowest result for a National leader in over a decade.

- Newshub

Another interesting development for Simon Bridges is that Judith Collins has made her first debut in the preferred prime minister rankings at 3.7%, possibly because she has delivered several crushing blows to government Phil Twyford in the House. I think we will see her bring in a few more points on the next poll now that the seed has been planted. I wouldn't even be surprised to see her overtake Simon Bridges in the future.

For Labour and the Greens, it's actually good news all around: Jacinda 's popularity is holding and so are their poll numbers. They didn't get a post budget bounce, but I doubt there was ever a way that was going to happen. National had earned their Labour-lite credentials over the past few budgets and everything was lined up for Labour to just deliver some minor tweaks on the budget that National would have delivered. That wasn't ever going to translate into poll boosts for either party.

There is good news and bad news for National, even with the dead weight of Simon Bridges, their poll numbers are static. (That was the good news and the bad news.) The worst part for them is that there is no path to victory in 2020 opening up, even with all of the blunders made by Ardern's coalition government in the past year.

The biggest losers in this poll are NZ First, who at this rate will be guaranteed to face electoral wipe-out in 2020, with what appears to be only a very small percentage of their voters being happy with the current results that are being delivered.